Resumen
Like other futures markets, prediction markets offer participants the opportunity to trade on their hunches, the difference being that a prediction market offers payout odds based on aggregate hunches of forthcoming events instead of prices. Prediction markets are gaining interest because the Internet allows greater worldwide access to them, as well as to the ever-increasing amount of data stored on any topic imaginable (which theoretically allows participants to make more informed predictions, individually and in aggregate). These factors, plus the enormous amount of computing power that will make it possible to instantly calculate exponentially small odds, are stimulating new research on advanced computational models in prediction markets. In fact, David Pennock, principal researcher, Yahoo!, says the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission is considering expanding the use of prediction markets beyond low-budget research functions or "play money" markets to regulated public exchanges similar to the world's largest prediction market, Ireland-based Intrade