RESUMEN

Predicting the evolution of software engineering technology is, at best, a dubious proposition. Typically, it is a frustrating and disappointing exercise. It is not difficult to see why: Software technology evolves at a fast pace and is determined by a dizzying array of factors, many of them outside the arena of software engineering. Most of them cannot be identified, let alone predicted, with any significant advance notice. This article briefly discusses the authors' first ventures in this domain and some preliminary conclusions and suggestions.