BIBCYT Titulo: Alejandría BE 7.0.7b0

Título: =Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation Method

Sólo un registro cumplió la condición especificada en la base de información BIBCYT.

Referencias Analíticas

Autor:	Gel, Yulia ; Raftery, Adrian E. ; Gneiting , Tilmann
Título:	Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation Method
Páginas/Colación:	pp. 575 - 583
Url:	http://oberon.asa.catchword.org/vl=5518955/cl=25/nw=1/rpsv/cw/asa/01621459/v99n467/s1/p575

Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 99, no. 467 September 2004

Información de existencia

Resumen

Probabilistic weather forecasting consists of finding a joint probability distribution for future weather quantities or events. It is typically done by using a numerical weather prediction model, perturbing the inputs to the model in various ways, and running the model for each perturbed set of inputs. The result is then viewed as an ensemble of forecasts, taken to be a sample from the joint probability distribution of the future weather quantities of interest. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without the vast data and computing resources of national weather centers. Instead, we propose a simpler method that breaks with much previous practice by perturbing the outputs, or deterministic forecasts, from the model. Forecast errors are modeled using a geostatistical model, and ensemble members are generated by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts of temperature in the North American Pacific Northwest between 2000 and 2002. The resulting forecast intervals turn out to be empirically well calibrated for individual meteorological quantities, to be sharper than those obtained from approximate climatology, and to be consistent with aspects of the spatial correlation structure of the observations.

UCLA - Biblioteca de Ciencias y Tecnologia Felix Morales Bueno

Generados por el servidor 'bibcyt.ucla.edu.ve' (18.191.102.112)
Adaptive Server Anywhere (07.00.0000)
ODBC
Sesión="" Sesión anterior=""
ejecutando Back-end Alejandría BE 7.0.7b0 ** * *
18.191.102.112 (NTM) bajo el ambiente Apache/2.2.4 (Win32) PHP/5.2.2.
usando una conexión ODBC (RowCount) al manejador de bases de datos..
Versión de la base de información BIBCYT: 7.0.0 (con listas invertidas [2.0])

Cliente: 18.191.102.112
Salida con Javascript

** Back-end Alejandría BE 7.0.7b0 *