Resumen
Predicting future is a complicated activity full of errors. This article presents several examples of experts error in forecasting the future of technological innovations. Western Union internal memo in 1876 stated that, "This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. the device is inherently of no value to us." Thomas Watson, chairman of International Business Machines Corp., in 1943 stated that, "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers," are some of the examples related to the stated aspect of experts error. But infect the predictions that fail to come true may not actually be bad predictions at all. Such predictions often serve as a admonitions to steer researchers away from undesirable futures. Both overly pessimistic and optimistic forecasts are frequently faulty as a result of oversimplification. Moreover, prognosticators of all persuasions often fail to take into account the difficulty of predicting human behavior. The fact is the future is largely a function of one's past, present, and the choices he make. Technology, much like all the other tools at human disposal have only a potentiality for good or evil. The promises that technology holds for human and what cures they might use to bring about are nearly limitless.